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Kind of amazing when you think about how much money and energy is spent on recruiting: "The 3 highest-rated OTs in this yr's draft were ranked as a 4-star; a 2-star & a 0-star out of HS"
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It is hard, because its such a big transition. The level of physicality and strength needed at the collegiate level is just so far above the high school level. You try to get kids you thin can develop that strength and grit needed, but its still a crap shoot.
Its definitely easier to evaluate a WR. While DBs are physical in college, a truly great HS WR is a much safer bet than other positions. Raw talent is easier to shine through assuming they are smart enough to run routes and are good enough to catch the ball.
QB & O-Line definitely the hardest positions to project.
The other thing with tackles in particular is that teams are wanting them to be more and more athletic. That's why you see some under the radar guys come in that are athletic and have big long frames at say TE put on 60 to 75 pounds and get moved to tackle. That's what happened with Ricky Wagner. With the value teams put on protecting QBs they'll do what they have to to find good tackles.
Usually the high star skill positions translate fairly well to the NFL. Not so much with linemen. Not sure about linebackers but probably similar to the skill positions I would think.
I have actually seen a few different articles about this. For those interested, I attached one about the 2012 NFL draft, but generally 4 and 5 stars guys are considerably more likely to make it the NFL then 3 star and below guys. The article doesn't break it down by position, but its still pretty interesting.
You have to take into consideration that last year, looking at the 247 composites, there were 34 5 star guys and 296 4 star guys for a total of 330. At 85 scholarships per team that isn't even enough guys to fill out the scholarship numbers for 4 teams, so the overwhelming majority of guys playing college football were 3 star or below, so its much more likely a guy will be a 3 star or below just based on sheer numbers. So the fact that there was only one 4 star in the top 3 rated OTs for this years NFL draft shouldn't be that surprising.
NFL Draft: Do Recruiting Rankings Matter?
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